North Korea’s Game of Thrones
Last week North Korea confirmed its succession process. Kim Jong Il, the country’s current leader, has recently appointed his son, Kim Jong-un as a Four Star General of the military, another step towards the eventuality that he will be his father’s successor. As it has been noted by some analysts, North Korea would have become the first communist monarchy; because Kim Jong Il also inherited the power from his father, Kim Il Sung, founder of People’s Republic of Korea.
Kim Jong-un is almost a stranger to the North Korea people. The young Kim has no experience in government and Kim Jong Il’s family has always been covered by a cloak of mystery. After the appointment he will be educated in politics matters.
North Korea is an enigma surrounded by a secret. It is one of the world’s most repressive dictatorships and it has long attempted (and succeeded) in shutting out foreign influence. Naturally then, it is very difficult to know as an outsider, what is manifesting in the mind of its government. Analysts have tried to explain what may happen in North Korea when Kim Jong-un becomes the head of the state.
One possibility is that Kim Jong-un will be a mere figurehead when he arrives to power. He would be a puppet and the two strongest North Korea’s faction, the Communist Party and the army, would pull the strings. Kim Jong Il’s brother in law, Chang Song-Taek would be the strong man in the country. Now, he has a powerful position because he is the president of National Defence Commission, the country’s highest military institution and the power core. This scenario may be possible if Kim Jong Il dies soon (he has suffered a stroke in 2008 and he may have a cancer), leaving his son little time to gain support within the country.
The second ‘what if’ scenario involves Kim Jong-un trying to gain the Army’s loyalty. Then, he would attempt to raise tensions in northeastern Asia with some kind of armed provocation. By doing that, the future leader would please the hawkish military factions, that might have otherwise been disappointed by the arrival of the inexperienced Kim Jong Il’s son. Fortunately, the Army seems to have accepted his appointment; and it lowers the risk of a military clash.
The third possibility is the better one. It involves Kim Jong-un having time to consolidate support within the country, after which he may introduce reforms. North Korea’s only ally, China, wants the change to improve the situation on its borders. Some analysts have noted that Kim Jong-un studied at a business school in Switzerland; where he learnt the value of the market economy. It is said that he was very interested in Western culture and became a great fan of the NBA. Everything in North Korea is secret, but if it is true that Kim Jong-un is open-minded towards reforms, then positive change in his country may be a possibility. We should hope.
Indeed, this peaceful scenario is in everyone’s interests. A war in northeastern Asia would involve South Korea, China, and Japan and it would mean disruption to a whopping 20% of world economy. So, none of the world’s major powers are interested in a conflict in the region. Beijing also wants to improve the stability and rectify the poverty in North Korea because if the regime in Pyongyang collapses, it is likely that a wave of refugees hundreds of thousands strong would try to enter China.
What do you mean with "defend it"? If you mean South Korea, of course, the US will defend its ally. There are thousands of American troops in the country.
The question is, will the US defend it?
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