War in Korea, a risk too far
On Tuesday, the World began its day with the news of an artillery duel between the two Koreas. Four dead (two South Korean soldiers, two civilians) and 17 injured. Bad news, of course. But Northeastern Asia is not on the brink of war. The attack was serious, but it might not escalate into a full-blown armed confrontation. The big question is; why North Korea had launched a barrage of missiles against its neighbor in the first place?
We have a number of explanations. Firstly, the attack may be explained as an attempted show of strength by Pyongyang to bolster the position of Kim Jong-on, Kim Jong Il’s successor, between the hawkish factions of the Army. The son of the Dear Leader might have ordered the missile barrage to prove that he would be a strong man when he would come to power when his father dies.
If you look at North Korea’s History, is it not the first time that the heir in Pyongyang communist throne uses the violence against the South to garner growing support amongst immediate power circles. Kim Jong Il has a terrible resume of attacks against Seoul’s interests, as well as military and government officials. Allegedly, he had been involved in covert operations such as the bombing of Korean Air Flight 858 (115 dead) and the killing of 17 South Korean officials in Rangoon during a state visit. Kim Jong Il tried to prove that he was tougher than his father, Kim Il Sung who started the Korean War in 1950, against the country’s enemies at the time.
Secondly, we have always heard that North Korea is a kind of schizophrenic state. Its government acts in an alien manner; difficult to explain by the standards of international relations. In this light, the Tuesday attack might be an attempt of Pyongyang to open up negotiations with the United States and so to lift the international sanctions. The North Korean provocations are calculated to resume the talks about its nuclear arsenal. The communist regime would accept the decision to dismantle it in exchange for foreign help, needed to fight against the poverty that hits hard between North Korean people.
The Obama Administration has been acting toward North Korea with “Strategic patience”, always waiting for the first move to come from Pyongyang. The North Korean armed provocations are a show of force that suggests the communist regime doesn’t want to seem weak. So, we are left with a kind of poker game between the two countries with the rest of the region watching closely.
Bob Woordward has described in his book, Obama’s War, how Pyongyang act. Woodward explains in words of Mike McConnell, former director of national intelligence (DNI), that: “The North Koreans would talk, they would lie, they would escalate and threaten to walk away, and the they would try to renegotiate”
This is not the time war another war, at any part of the world, especially in the Korean border. The world under recession. Some East Asian Countries are showing good signs of health. The Euro is falling apart. Let the G20 countries and the Head meet and decide what to do with such small firing across borders, by perhaps miscreants in the military to create confusion or mental tension. It wise to take China in the lead and as an interlocutor to North Korea. The saddest part is that the N.Korean leader is said to be in ill health, there is misunderstanding and cloudy scenes to identify the next leader or successor to the present regime. Americas intervention will only spoil the present political rest. They jump into conclusion. With overcooked ideas and undercooked information. Let calm prevails upon this world. From the American side, they cannot sit at the fence, but can send Former President Bill Clinton to N.Korea to understand and study their economic problems and come out with a save Korea package, the people there are said to suffering for want of food, shelter and medicines.
[...] will happen, about what lies in store for the stability of the Korean peninsula, what it means for relations with South Korea (with whom they are technically still at war), or most importantly for the long-besieged, yet [...]