Space Exploration: 2039
Source: http://www.aviationnews.eu/
It is 2039.
The International Space Congress (ISC), has had an active Mars outpost for 10 years. The reports that have been coming back fully support the dismal fact that Mars is not nor will ever be a hospitable planet for large-scale colonization. Its environment, or the lack thereof, along with a very high and persistent level of cosmic radiation makes it an unfriendly planet. Sure, terraforming could be tried (the outpost is terraformed) but the colossal expense and the prevailing risks – risks not easy to manage – make it an unwise choice. For the moment.
Yes, the ISC has returned to the Moon, and there are both industrial and research activities ongoing on that lovely Earth satellite. But again, it is just not an ideal location for serious, large-scale colonization.
Since the Augustine Committee report back in 2009, the ISC has essentially concentrated on a flexible plan that has enabled us to open an outpost on Mars and to begin serious explorations of the rest of our solar system. All of this is important, but it is not getting us closer to finding another planetary environment that could support or is supporting human life. Additionally, aside from our continuing abuse of our home planet Earth, we are stifling our evolutionary imperative to move on beyond where humankind is now.
So what do we do?
On the wings of Pegasus
Back in 1995, astronomers found that the star, 51Pegasi, in the Pegasus constellation had a follower, namely a gas giant that became designated 51Pegasi-b. Since the discovery of the first exoplanet, almost half a century ago, the list of exoplanets is now over 7500 strong and it continues to increase. Until recently, we have been unable to make definite determinations as to whether any of those we class as “Earth-like” are really capable of supporting human life. But the star 51 Pegasi, and its gas giant was long considered to be one of the top five candidate stars as the host for a possible Earth-like exoplanet. 51Pegasi-b is not such an exoplanet, but the theory was that the star could be host to more planets; a potential solar system.
There has however, been a significant breakthrough when, four years ago, astronomers using both the data from a Kepler follow-on space telescope and the now fully functioning Terrestrial Planet Finder (TPF) discovered two new exoplanets orbiting 51Pegasi. These planets are currently known as 51Pegasi –c and –d. Most importantly, they are believed to be orbiting safely within the star’s habitable zone. Early analyses indicate that in size and general composition, the two exoplanets have a good chance of being much like our own Mars and Earth planets; in both relative sizes and orbits around their sun. The excitement coursing through the ISC was intense, and hopes rose that we had finally found two possible life supporting planets in our galaxy. It was then that this became of urgent interest to wider humanity, with its population fast closing on 9 billion.
We search for habitable exoplanets. Here is an artist's rendition of Gilese-581. Source: http://gj581g.blogspot.com
The ISC Calls for Action:
“We need to expand and dramatically activate our next level of exoplanetary research to begin assessing these “Earth-like” planets. Additionally, we must concentrate on those which offer a reasonable potential for being reached; such as the two recently Earth-like exoplanets orbiting 51Pegasi. Reaching these two prospective Earth twins; however, is not going to be an easy task. We must start now to design and develop the spacecraft to accomplish this goal.”
The Pioneer/Voyager/Mars Rover Paradigm
First, we must begin the process of developing a robotic exploration system that will utilize the most exotic and available propulsion and communication systems. These must give us the ability to begin exploring carefully selected exoplanetary systems. No, we are not rummaging around for some idealistic warp drive or devising a worm hole strategy, we are creating a propulsion system that will give us continuous acceleration about 1/10 the speed of light. That in itself is an incredible challenge, but it is possible and must be explored.
Communication over these distances is a far greater engineering challenge. Design and development must find ways to use the galaxy’s cosmic energy environment as a signal booster to insure that not only do we exchange commands and data back and forth from our exoexplorer, but that it occurs at a timely interval. Yes, it is easy to type this kind of thing, and I acknowledge that I am asking for a tremendous scientific breakthrough. Keep in mind, we are here today because of a long succession of scientific breakthroughs. This one must join that historic list. Most importantly we must start that process now.
Contact[i]: Assuming we are successful in the design of both powerful propulsion and an extreme distance communication system, we have launched five, robotic, exoexplorers to assess two carefully selected Earth-like exoplanets. Two of these spacecraft will obtain and maintain orbiting contact with the planets and two will be used to actually descend onto the exoplanets much in the manner of the earlier Mars rovers. These direct landings will not occur until after data from the orbiting exoexplorers have been analyzed, so the “contact” exoexplorers go into a sleep mode orbit awaiting further activation. The fifth and sixth exoexplorers are specialized communication spacecraft that maintain the communication link between Earth and the exoexplorers.
Reflections: Yes, this entire article has been constructed from a series of assumptions about humankind and our willingness to explore space. Must we wait until we stand at the brink of extinction? If we do, would we have the stamina and the wherewithal to do what needs to be done? We are talking less than thirty years from now in our assumptions. Can we really get motivated and organized in that period of time? Do we want to or should we just give up? None of these questions are make believe. They will come up, and we will need to make decisions to stay and expire or to explore and evolve. Quo Vadis?
[i] Whenever I use this word, I think of Scientist/Cosmologist Carl Sagan. Perhaps we should label this the Sagan Mission.
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