China and Russia: how to stabilize an enigmatic succession
Members of the six-party nuclear talks. Wikipedia
Asia is watching North Korea.
The death of Kim Jong Il has raised a number of uncertainties about the future of the communist regime. Will his son Kim Jong-un be a strong leader? Will he want to start a armed clash to prove his courage? Is he to be a puppet in the rivalry between the Communist Party and the Armed Forces?
Some analysts believe North Korea’s neighbors are worried about a power struggle that would lead to a regional war. But the two great powers near North Korean borders, Russia and China, are committed to stability. They are committed in the Six Party Talks about Pyongyang’s nuclear program and the last thing they want is a war in Asia. And it is rather difficult for North Korea to start a war if one of the two major powers wants to avoid it.
China is the key factor. Beijing wants to maintain North Korea as a satellite and a buffer state for American troops in South Korea. But it also need a country not isolated and not ravaged by poverty from an obsolete economy. The Chinese government has a clear idea: the country needs economic growth, and a war in Asia would slow its rise as a world superpower.
Chinese diplomacy is the only one in the world that has direct line with Pyongyang, we should remember that it is the most hermetic and enigmatic government in the world. Beijing has a strong influence in the country, and surely it could stop the hawkish North Koreans generals of trying to show their force against South Korea and Japan.
The CPC has invited Kim Jong-un to visit the country just after his father’s death. It is a clear sign of its support to Kim Jong Il’s son, and a message to the world saying that there is no need to be afraid of the new North Korean leader: the Chinese government controls events.
People’s Republic of China also wants that its ally starts an economic reform. Beijing has convinced North Korea to start Special Economic Zones near the border between the two countries. They have received investment from foreign companies, mainly Russian and Chinese. Their results are unclear (like everything else in North Korea), but they might be a first step in adopting market economy.
Kim Jong-Il and Russian PM Dimitri Medvedev have been holding meetings.
Russia has interests in North Korea too. The Kremlin has a long tradition of close relationship with Pyongyang. Soviet troops, afterall, put the Communist regime in the country at the end of the Second World War. Its companies have been making important investments in business such as Trans Korean gas pipeline and Khasan Raijan railway. These projects require peace in Northeast Asia, thus, Moscow is not interested in supporting military adventures in the region.
Moscow and Beijing are the only strong friends of North Korea in the world. They don’t want a war in Asia. The leaders in Pyongyang may seem rare but they are not suicides. As I have said in a previous post, war is a risk too far.
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