From Arab Spring to Global Summer: Part Two
From Arab Spring to Global Summer: Part One
Martyr to many revolutuons--Mohamed Bouazizi. Source: Wikipedia
While it is impossible to know with any precision the exact moment of outrage that ignited the wave of revolutions that swept much of the developed world in 1848, it is very easy to pinpoint the moment that set into motion what has come to be called the “Arab Spring”. In December of 2010, a 26 year old Tunisian street vendor named Mohamed Bouazizi in response to what would be the last of many petty harassment from corrupt police, covered himself in gasoline…and applied a match.
That final, desperate act of hopeless anger and despair ended a poor man’s life and began a revolution that is still unfolding. Thousands of other Tunisians–also poor, also young, also deprived of a future by a corrupt and authoritarian oligarchy– took to the streets demanding justice. In a pattern that has become very familiar, the initial official response to the protests was to marginalize and ridicule them, then crack down on them with authoritarian brutality that only served to inspire further protest which eventually grew to the point that the grievances of the general population could not be ridiculed, ignored, or suppressed. In January of 2011, after 23 years of unquestioned authoritarian control, Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali resigned from office and fled the country.
Tunisian revolution. Source: cjb22 on flickr.com
To date, the example set in Tunisia has spread across the Middle East and North Africa to Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Yemen–and re-ignited long-standing public grievances in Iran dating back to suspect elections in 2009. In the case of Egypt and Libya, the term “revolution” is entirely accurate, resulting in one case a fairly bloodless regime change, and in the other case a bloody civil war that remains unresolved.
Arab Spring Map. Source: wikipedia
The “Arab Spring” label that has been applied to these related protests is somewhat misleading–not least in that it is by no means specific to countries with majority Arab populations. In addition to ethnicity, there are other distinct local issues that factor into these movements. Nonetheless, there is a high degree of commonality in their objectives, because the issues that have occasioned their outrage and resistance are trans-national in nature and affect to varying degrees every single human being on this planet.
To run down the list of countries that have been impacted by the Arab Spring is, to a large extent, to run down a list of countries that would have no modern standing as nations except for being exporters of oil– or having had at one time or another geopolitical significance in the competition of great powers for oil and other natural resources. In Iran and other places in the region, the epithet “Great Satan” is frequently applied to the United States of America. But really, that makes as much sense as boycotting a British Petroleum gas station in response to the Deep Water Horizon disaster. The vendor of BP’s petrol is just an employee, and so is the United States government.
Deepwater Horizon offshore drilling unit on fire. The dictators are just hirelings. We need to remember who, and what, the real problem is. Source: EPA
The successes of the Arab Spring have varied greatly, depending on such factors as preexisting democratic institutions (even flawed ones), the presence of strong labor movements, and levels of international support for current regimes. A factor of no small importance: whether or not the country in question is an exporter of petroleum.
These factors are very evident in the two instances to date of actual regime change. In Egypt, a combination of existing democratic institutions and strong ties to the international community led to the largely peaceful removal of Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak–that is, “peaceful”: just under 1,000 deaths and approximately 6,000 injuries. In Libya, the pariah status of Muammar Gaddafi’s forty year old dictatorship, combined with a near total lack of democratic institutions, combined with substantial domestic oil reserves resulted in a UN-sponsored civil war. In both cases, outcomes remain fair from certain. Egypt remains in the hands of a “transitional” military council that shows little inclination to cede power. Libya’s National Transition Council has announced elections will be held in April of 2012, but has yet to produce a constitution. A similar narrative to Libya appears to be unfolding in Syria, where a regime only slightly less loved than Gaddafi’s is rapidly squandering international support and facing open armed rebellion.
In countries like Algeria, Bahrain, Oman, and Saudi Arabia, a combination of powerful allies, few preexisting democratic institutions, and significant oil reserves have produced a pattern in which very little has been accomplished to date. In countries like Kuwait and Yemen, substantial changes in government are occurring, albeit slowly.
The common factors driving unrest in all of these countries are a combination of extremely high youth unemployment, corrupt or non-responsive governments, and the escalating cost of food, housing, and other basic necessities. While economic stagnation plays a key role in unemployment issues, it should be noted that all of these countries have relatively high fertility rates and relatively long life expectancies.
If it wasn't about oil, it would just be some other damned thing. Source: wikipedia
The contribution of overpopulation to adverse social conditions cannot be wished away or papered over with increases in economic productivity.
It should also be noted that the ability of states like the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to continue to impose repressive social conditions upon their populations would not exist without the active support of international corporate capitalism. The term “banana republic” may have been coined to describe the active interference of earlier corporatists in states producing an earlier and less valuable commodity, but the basic dynamic remains: as long as a country is able to supply needed resources on the global marketplace, it can expect tolerance–if not enthusiastic assistance– from the global market’s chief beneficiaries.
Regardless of the ultimate abstract value of a global economy, it must be recognized that, in the short term, globalization is being exploited by major corporations at the expense of human beings worldwide. There is an indisputable connection as well between escalating costs of basic necessities and scarcities resulting directly from human overpopulation and human-created global climate change.
The tactics used by middle eastern resistance groups have ranged from self immolation to non violent protest to active armed revolt. In no case have they achieved permanent positive results–nor will they, as long as they expend their energies in conflict with proxies…and ignore the larger conflict.
Another Brilliant and insightful article in the "Arab Spring Global Summer" collection. These articles truly do delve deeper than much of what I've read across mainstream media.
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